Qatar’s LNG expansion boosts real economic growth
Qatar could become the producer of LNG (liquefied natural gas) and its LNG expansion plans are expected to boost real economic growth and budget surpluses at high and mid-numbers averaging over 2021-2027, according to the report. from the Bank of America.
“Qatar’s LNG strategy appears to be focused on defense and, when the time comes, increasing its market share. Qatar’s structural cost advantage makes it well positioned to maintain its position as a premier supplier. plan, while allowing greater flexibility in contract pricing, ”the report says. mentionned.
Qatar’s structurally low production costs offer a key advantage, he said, adding that the country’s pricing strategy is starting to show more flexibility.
The report says the planned increase in the country’s LNG capacity would bode well for overall gross domestic product, or GDP. It is expected to strengthen activity by stimulating real GDP growth in hydrocarbons over 2025-2027 and real non-oil GDP growth through higher investments over 2022-2027.
“We estimate that the LNG investment pipeline could boost real nonhydrocarbon GDP growth by 1.5 ppt per year, increasing it to 5% on average over the period 2022-27, based on the multiplier’s estimates. typical GCC budget, ”he said.
Increased activity would allow the economy to double in size, with nominal GDP reaching $ 300 billion by 2027, up from $ 145 billion in 2020.
The report estimates the budget balance to average 2% of GDP over the 2021-2027 period, gradually increasing over the same period to a surplus of just under 5% in 2027.
The main factors and sensitivities on the balanced budget front are a medium-term oil price assumption of $ 60 per barrel, a blended LNG export price that reflects an average 25% reduction in contract prices. to be renewed during the period 2022-2027; and current expenditure grows overall in line with nominal real GDP growth, excluding hydrocarbons.
QP is moving forward with its two-step plan to increase LNG production capacity. He will sign the bulk of the project-related agreements by the end of the year, Bank of America said. In total, the two phases would increase Qatar’s LNG production capacity in 2027 by 63% to 126 million tonnes per year (Mtpa).
The North Field East (NFE) project is a $ 28.75 billion expansion plan aimed at increasing production capacity by 42% to 110 mtpy by 2027.
The expansion project would see gas production from the first quarter of 2025, and each of the four 8 mtpa LNG trains will start operating at three to six month intervals, so the project would be fully commissioned. by the end of 2026 or early. 2027, according to QP officials.
The second phase of the planned LNG expansion, the North Field South (NFS) project, would further increase LNG production capacity from 110 mtpy to 126 mtpa by 2027, and would involve two more 8 mtpa LNG trains.
The combined LNG expansion plans would amount to $ 43 billion, accounting for 24% of 2021 GDP and 73% of gross capital formation, according to the Bank of America report.