No reason to be complacent as Russia-Ukraine conflict modestly hinders global economic growth, report says
NEW YORK, March 31, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — After a strong start to 2022, the Russia–Ukraine The global macroeconomic effects of the conflict seem moderate for now, but the risks are clearly on the downside, according to “Global economic outlook Q2 2022: no reason to be complacent as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict modestly slows growth“, released today. The conflict will influence direct trade effects, energy and commodity prices, confidence and policy responses, particularly in China.
“We have lowered our forecast for GDP growth to 3.6% globally, 3.2% in the United States and 3.3% in the euro zone,” said S&P’s global chief economist. Paul Grünwald. “We think China the policy response will keep growth stable at around 5%. »
Of the regions we track, the Eurozone is expected to be hardest hit by GDP growth. Russia–Ukraine conflict, at 1.1% this year, given its proximity and greater exposure to global energy costs. In contrast, the main driver of lower growth in the United States is coming from higher domestic interest rates and not from Russia–Ukraine conflict; US growth fell 60 basis points. Asia Pacific is relatively isolated outside the cost channels of energy imports, and emerging markets are divided along the lines of energy dependence.
Inflation has come to the fore as a policy challenge, especially in the US where the Fed’s tightening cycle is the main factor behind slowing growth for now. Rising US dollar rates will tighten financial conditions, dampen growth and spill over to other economies, while European Central Bank tightening will be much more gradual.
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