Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights: US NFP, ISM; China PMI; EZ CPI; BoC; OPEC+
- MON: EZ Sentiment Survey (April).
- TUE: NBH announcement; Japan Employment Report (April); Chinese PMI; German unemployment (May); EZ Flash CPI (May); Canadian GDP.
- MARRY: Bank of Canada Rate Decision; South Korean trade balance (May); Australian GDP (Q1); Chinese final of the Caixin manufacturing PMI (May); Retail sales in Germany (April); EZ/UK/US end manufacturing PMIs (May); EZ unemployment rate (April); US ADP National Employment (May); ISM US Manufacturing PMI (May); OPEC JTC meeting.
- GAME: Swiss CPI (May); EZ PPI (May); US Durable Goods R (April); OPEC+ meeting
- FRI: CPI South Korea (May); EZ/UK/US Services and Final Composite PMI (May); EZ Retail Sales (April); US Labor Market Report (May); ISM Services PMI (May).
NOTE: previews are listed by order of the day
SPECIAL MEETING OF THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL (MON/TUES): To finalize the sixth sanctions package against Russia, EU leaders are set to meet on May 30-31, 2022. The main focus is likely to be on the oil embargo aspect of the package in the middle of Hungary’s opposition to a timely and timely exit from Russian energy. Ukraine’s energy ministry has warned that “something could happen with the Druzhba pipeline” delivering crude oil to Hungary if Hungary blocks the EU oil embargo, according to Euronews. Sources via Bloomberg and Reuters have suggested that the EU is leaning towards postponing a pipeline ban to secure its embargo on oil deals, where shipments via the Druzhba pipeline could be temporarily excluded from the proposed ban by the EU. Besides energy, food security will also be on the agenda – “At our meeting, we will discuss concrete ways to help Ukraine export its agricultural products using EU infrastructure”, said declared the President of the Council Michel in his letter of invitation. Defense will also be addressed within EU borders. The meeting is scheduled to start at 3:00 p.m. BST / 10:00 a.m. EDT, according to the invite.
PMI US ISM MANUFACTURING (WED), PMI SERVICES (FRI): The ISM manufacturing was little changed in May, with the street expecting 55.3 from 55.4 in April. However, Credit Suisse expects a drop above consensus estimates: “Regional surveys have shown a sharp drop recently, with securities from the states of Philly, Richmond and Empire at or near post-pandemic lows” , the banknotes, “Global supply chains are expected to remain under pressure, which should aggravate the slowdown in growth, but also give a boost to the global ISM due to longer delivery times for the suppliers.” The bank notes that industrial production has held up despite some of this year’s shocks — like China’s COVID shutdowns and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and says U.S. growth momentum has picked up as the global dynamic was collapsing; “We don’t expect a big decline in US manufacturing, but the recent outperformance is likely unsustainable and a slowdown remains our base case.”
CHINESE OFFICIAL PMI (TUE): Chinese PMIs will likely reflect subdued corporate sentiment amid COVID lockdowns, but greater M/M optimism is expected as Shanghai has begun easing restrictions as the government announces new support measures. The release will also be reviewed under the hood for anecdotal snippets regarding inflation for the world’s second-largest economy, and ahead of Chinese inflation measures on June 10 – which are expected to show cooling in both the CPI and PPI in May. .
IPC EZ FLASH (MAR): Headline CPI Y/Y is expected to rise to 7.5% from 7.4%. For the basic metric (excluding power and energy), there is no consensus at the time of writing. However, Credit Suisse analysts expect it to hold steady at 3.5%. Nordea analysts expect the stock to be supported by oil prices and “strong price pressures on global food indices”. For the core reading, Nordea believes it is likely to remain at elevated levels given that “pricing pressures have continued in both services and non-energy industrial goods,” according to PMI data. . As always, regional releases ahead of the Eurozone-wide measure will help form a clearer consensus on Tuesday’s print. From a policy perspective, the upcoming release is likely to have little impact on the ECB’s forthcoming meetings with policymakers who have struggled in recent weeks to convey that asset purchases in the framework of the APP will probably end on July 1, allowing a rate hike of 25 basis points on July 21. by another in September. As such, the statement will likely only reaffirm the lingering inflation anxiety within the Eurozone.
BOC TARIFF DECISION (WED): After a half-percentage rate hike in April, the is expected to raise rates another 50 basis points in June as it tries to contain price pressures, which would take its key rate to 1, 50%. Economists revised their expectations more hawkishly after April’s inflation readings, which showed an average of the Bank of Canada’s three core CPI measures rising from 3.77% to 4.23% , while the stock rose to 6.8% YoY, meaning inflation has been above the BoC’s 1-3% target range for more than a year. Analysts said that should keep the Bank of Canada in aggressive inflation-fighting mode. Canadian bank RBC wrote that “the Bank of Canada is focused on controlling inflation, but once the overnight rate reaches a more neutral level, it will be aware of the potential trade-off between bringing inflation back quickly to target and prolong the economic cycle”; RBC does not expect the BoC to operate in restrictive territory (the neutral rate is estimated to be between 2 and 3%) unless inflation dynamics compel it to do so, and RBC warns that if it did, it would “magnify the risk of recession.” A Reuters poll of fourteen economists revealed a divergence of views on whether the current tightening would lead to an economic recession.
AUSTRALIAN GDP (WED): First quarter GDP data will likely be out of date given the retrospective nature of the release and macroeconomic developments since then. Nonetheless, the metric is expected to print at 0.7% (prev. 3.4%) while the metric is seen at 3.0% (prev. 4.2%). The offices highlight the baseline effects of the previous Q/Q measure, which was reinforced following the COVID Delta outbreak in the third quarter. “For the first quarter, we anticipate anemic growth of 0.2%. Printed labor force survey hours were down 1.2%, indicating downside risks,” Westpac analysts say. In terms of monetary policy monitoring, the release is unlikely to influence market prices too much, with money markets currently pricing a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cash rate hike at the meeting. of June 7.
OPEC+ MEETING (GAME): Oil producers are set to continue the pact to increase oil production up to the previously agreed amount of 432,000 bpd – expectations which were also supported by six OPEC sources via Reuters. The meeting is due to take place shortly after the ‘secret visit’ of two senior US advisers to Saudi Arabia regarding a potential deal to boost oil production to rein in rising prices ahead of the driving season in the States. -United. Analysts have argued that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to align with the needs of the United States for several reasons – 1) It is in Saudi Arabia’s interest to remain neutral as the Russia is an OPEC+ ally, 2) Spare capacity has come into focus, with the gap between OPEC+ production and quota reaching a record 2.59 million bpd in April; 13 of 19 countries struggled to meet their quotas, according to a survey cited by S&P Global. Meanwhile, the CEO of Saudi Aramco warned earlier this week that the world was operating on less than 2% spare oil capacity. Additionally, the drop in demand seen during COVID episodes in China provides less reason to open taps more than expected. Overall, the meeting will likely be similar to the recent series of speed meetings.
US LABOR MARKET REPORT (FRI): The consensus expects 350,000 non-farm payrolls to be added to the US economy in May (previously 428,000), and as work continues to return, the jobless rate is expected to fall by a tenth of a point. percentage to 3.5% (NOTE: the current Fed forecast, made in March, called for the unemployment rate to fall to this level by the end of this year). Given that the Fed’s reaction function is currently heavily price-focused, there will be a lot of focus on measures of average hourly earnings on whether runaway price increases are causing second-round effects – if that seems If the case, it is likely the Fed will continue its hawkish rhetoric, backed by aggressive policy normalization as it attempts to rein in consumer prices. The Street expects average hourly earnings to rise 0.4% M/M (before +0.3%), which is more or less in line with the average seen since 2021. “Employment gains and wages, along with a flat working week, should fuel another strong gain in labor compensation that is more than enough to offset the erosion in aggregate purchasing power due to high inflation,” Barclays said. .
This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.