Mortgage rates today, November 6 and rate forecasts for next week
Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Average mortgage rates fell again yesterday, ending the week significantly below where they started. They are still above 3% for most loans. But they are going in the right direction.
I predicted higher rates over the past two weeks and was completely wrong. I still think the recent falls were a hit in a much longer uptrend. But it was a hell of a blip. And I don’t know how long it’s going to last.
Still I’m gonna stick my neck out and say I think mortgage rates could rise next week, partly supported by the adoption of the stimulus bill and good employment data.
Find and lock in a low rate (November 6, 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Conventional 30 years fixed||3.109%||3,129%||-0.09%|
|Conventional 15 years fixed||2,558%||2,586%||-0.02%|
|Conventional 20 years fixed||2,898%||2.934%||-0.09%|
|Conventional 10 years fixed||2.476%||2,533%||-0.06%|
|30-year fixed FHA||3.099%||3.858%||-0.09%|
|15 years fixed FHA||2,525%||3,169%||-0.03%|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.457%||3,134%||-0.02%|
|Fixed VA over 30 years||2.937%||3,129%||-0.12%|
|VA fixed 15 years||2,648%||2.989%||-0.09%|
|5/1 ARM VA||2.509%||2.356%||-0.02%|
|Prices are provided by our network of partners and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our pricing assumptions here.|
Find and lock in a low rate (November 6, 2021)
Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?
You might want to wait until next week to see if mortgage rates continue to fall before they lock in. But you should be ready to hit the button at any time.
The forces aligned to push these rates higher are powerful. And I remain convinced that mortgages will soon become more expensive again.
But I have to admit that the markets are not reacting as I expected to recent events. And, if it lasts much longer, I may need to revise my advice.
But, for now, my personal recommendations remain:
- LOCK if closing 7 days
- LOCK if closing 15 days
- LOCK if closing 30 days
- LOCK if closing 45 days
- LOCK if closing 60 days
However, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine, if not better. So let your instincts and your personal risk tolerance guide you.
What changes current mortgage rates
It was not a huge surprise that Wednesday’s big announcement by the Federal Reserve did not cause mortgage rates to spike. Around the same time last week, I wrote: “I expect Wednesday’s announcement to be a bit of a wet firecracker… the pain has spread and the worst may be already behind us. “
Indeed, these rates increased modestly that day. What I did not expect was that they fall Thursday and Friday.
And that was doubly true for Friday. Because the employment report that day was much better than expected. Normally, investors would welcome this news by raising mortgage rates before hopping on their yachts for the weekend and blowing corks of champagne.
So what is going on?
Mortgage News Daily has a theory to explain what’s going on. It was one that had occurred to me but which I considered doubtful. But maybe I was wrong.
And it all has to do with the Bank of England (BoE), the central bank of the United Kingdom, and its equivalent of our Fed. It met on Thursday, the day after the Fed meeting. And she too had made her intentions clear in advance.
However, in his case, he had made it known that he was going to increase his interest rates. But this is not the case. During the day, he left them unchanged at 0.1%. The British pound (British currency) fell, as did the yields on British Treasury bonds (“gilts”).
These gilts are the equivalent of our US Treasury bills. And there is generally a close relationship between yields on 10-year US Treasuries and US mortgage rates.
Was that it? Did mortgage rates drop Thursday and Friday due to BoE inaction? May be. Central banks certainly influence each other. And global investors can shop around for their bond purchases. It is therefore easy to understand a certain level of contagion between national markets.
But as much? Who knows? I have nothing better.
Other upward pressures
Meanwhile, all the forces I usually mention keep trying to drive mortgage rates up:
- Inflation – We will have the latest figures next week. But there are few signs of slowing inflation. And that pretty much always brings higher rates
- COVID-19 infection rates drop – Daily infection rates fell to 71,617 yesterday, from 285,058 on September 13. This fall considerably slows down the economic recovery. And a thriving economy means higher mortgage rates
- The Fed – After 19 months of keeping mortgage rates artificially low, the Fed finally announced on Wednesday that it would start reducing its support. And he’s cutting his monthly mortgage bond purchases from $ 40 billion to $ 5 billion every month. Until it hits zero in mid-2022. It may hurt over time
And now there is a fourth factor of higher rates. Until yesterday, the low employment rate was the keystone of the economic recovery. But Friday’s report was excellent. While the recovery seems more assured.
And, of course, President Joe Biden’s $ 1 trillion infrastructure plan was finally passed by Congress yesterday. And this is very likely to drive recovery faster and further.
Economic reports next week
This week’s economic reports largely focused on jobs. And next week is mostly about inflation.
As we saw above, inflation is one of the main drivers of rising mortgage rates. And if next week’s data shows it is moderating noticeably, we could see those rates come down. But, if those numbers show the same or higher inflation, expect more expensive mortgages.
None of the other economic reports listed below are likely to cause much movement in the markets unless they include some incredibly good or bad data:
- Monday – October producer price index for final demand (future inflation)
- Wednesday – October consumer price index (IPC) more Core CPI, which is the CPI without the volatile food and energy prices. No more new weekly unemployment insurance claims until November 6
- Thursday – Markets closed for Veterans Day
- Friday – Job vacancies in September and consumer confidence index in November
Wednesday is the big day for next week.
Find and lock in a low rate (November 6, 2021)
Mortgage interest rate forecasts for next week
Again i think mortgage rates could rise next week. If they don’t, it’ll be three weeks in a row when I’m wrong with the prediction.
But I find it hard to believe that the markets will not react to the passage of the $ 1000 billion infrastructure plan and better jobs news, even if it is a belated reaction.
Of course, I cannot be sure. But I’m pretty sure mortgage rates will resume their upward trend shortly.
Mortgage and refinancing rates generally move in tandem. And a growing gap between the two has been largely eliminated by the recent removal of unfavorable refinancing fees from the market.
And another recent regulatory change has likely made mortgages for investment property and vacation homes more accessible and less expensive.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinancing rates are generally determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.
And it depends heavily on the economy. Mortgage rates therefore tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy is struggling.
But you play an important role in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can significantly affect it by:
- Find Your Best Mortgage Rate – They Vary Dramatically From Lender to Lender
- Increase Your Credit Score – Even a Small Bump Can Make a Big Difference in Your Rate and Payments
- Save the Biggest Down Payment Possible – Lenders love you to have real skin in this game
- Keep your other loans small – The lower your other monthly commitments, the larger the mortgage you can afford
- Choosing Your Mortgage Carefully – Are you better off with a conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or whatever loan?
The time spent getting those ducks in a row can earn you lower rates.
Remember, it’s not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to count all of your upcoming homeownership costs when determining how much mortgage you can afford. So focus on your “PITI”. It’s your Pmain (reimburses the amount you borrowed), Iinterest (the loan price), (property) Taxes, and (owners) Iassurance. Our mortgage calculator can help.
Depending on the type of mortgage you have and the amount of your down payment, you may also need to pay for mortgage default insurance. And that can easily reach three digits each month.
But there are other potential costs. You will therefore have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repair and maintenance costs. There is no owner to call in case of a problem!
Finally, you will have a hard time forgetting the closing costs. You can see which are reflected in the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) that will be shown to you. Because it effectively spreads them out over the life of your loan, making it higher than your normal mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs. and your down payment, especially if you are a first-time buyer. Read:
Down payment assistance programs in each state for 2021
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage Reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and an APR for each type of loan to display in our graph. Because we average a range of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same types of loans. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The result is a good overview of daily rates and how they have changed over time.